A structured, open curriculum on probability, pricing and risk. Written for people who want to understand prediction markets — not gamble on them.
Module 01
A market where contracts settle at 1 or 0 depending on a real-world outcome. Price is not a vibe — it is the crowd's live estimate of a probability, weighted by how much money is willing to stand behind it.
Module 02
Converting cents to probability is the easy part. The skill is knowing when the price is wrong — thin liquidity, stale news, or a resolution rule that nobody read carefully.
Module 03
A position should start with a number you wrote down before you looked at the market. Base rates first, headlines second.
Module 04
Most people are not wrong about direction. They are wrong about size. Edge without sizing discipline converges to zero.
Module 05
The most expensive losses are not wrong forecasts. They are correct forecasts that resolved against you on a technicality.
Module 06
Prediction markets are a forecasting tool that happens to involve money. Treat capital you cannot lose as off-limits — permanently.
Field notes
The working notebook behind the curriculum — published as we write it, revised as we learn.
A contract at 70¢ does not say the event will happen. It says that across many identical markets priced at 70¢, roughly seven in ten resolve YES. Calibration is judged over hundreds of trades, never one.
Read note→Fees, spread and slippage all move the line you actually need to beat. Compute the true break-even before the trade, and refuse anything where your edge is thinner than the friction.
Read note→Anchoring is the cheapest way to lose. Estimate the probability from base rates first, then open the market. If your number and the market's number are close, there is no trade — and that is a result.
Read note→A 20¢ move on $40 of volume is noise wearing a costume. Check depth and recent volume before treating a price as information about the world.
Read note→Most disputed outcomes were never ambiguous in the data — only in the wording. Know the source, the cutoff time and the tiebreaker before you size anything.
Read note→If a losing position changes your mood, your week or your plans, the position was too large. Fractional sizing keeps you in the game long enough for edge to show up.
Read note→Glossary
Eight terms carry most of the meaning. Learn these and the rest of the market reads itself.
Responsible play
Decide the maximum you are willing to lose today, in advance and in writing. A limit invented mid-session is not a limit.
Rent, tuition, debt and emergency savings are not risk capital. There is no forecast good enough to justify them.
Increasing size after a loss to get even is not a strategy — it is the single most reliable predictor of a bad outcome.
Fatigue degrades judgement long before it feels like it. Close the tab on a timer, not on a feeling.
If it stops being a choice
If trading is affecting your sleep, your finances or your relationships, stop and talk to someone. Support is free and confidential — contact a local problem-gambling helpline, or reach the National Council on Problem Gambling at 1-800-522-4700 in the US.
